El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Update

Approach to La Niña event in the Tropical Pacific

Continuing cooling of sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific Ocean since June 2011 has increased the chances of La Niña event coming back in the last quarter of this year, 2011. All current ENSO indicators are approaching values associated with La Niña events.

The ENSO indicators are ocean temperatures, atmospheric pressures, cloudiness and winds in the tropical pacific. However, ocean temperatures yet to reach critical thresholds, while climate model suggests mixed future trends.

Supposing a La Niña  is formed, it will be weaker than the strong 2010/11 events however, La Niña associate with normal to above normal rainfall in Solomon Islands.